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FulfillmentCompanies.net takes on a different approach in the industry and plays the role of matchmaker between sellers and 3PLs. Backed by a dozen years of research into the logistics industry, it boasts of having the expertise of finding the right fulfillment company for your outsourcing needs. FulfillmentCompanies offers a free online matching service for sellers in search of credible and reliable logistics companies in the U.S., Canada and Europe. The service pre-screens 3PLs and takes a detailed look at their pricing, storage and order processing systems. Vetting fulfillment companies is quick, taking only a few minutes and clicks and you get quotes from pre-screened suppliers. You’re matched with 3PLs that meet your requirements and specific needs.

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Option Decay

Novice options traders are usually disappointed if they try to profit from Theta decay over the weekend. If the underlying doesn’t move, options prices typically open on Monday unchanged from the Friday close. Commentators explain this phenomena noting that market makers, not wanting to be stuck with Theta losses over the weekend, discount prices, overriding their models before the weekend to move their inventory—just like a fruit vendor would.

I think the market makers are right for the wrong reason. Their computer models are (or at least were) based on calendar day assumptions—which assume option decay during the weekend. By overriding their models they are pricing according to what really happens—no decay when the market is closed.

Annualizing factors

For longer term expectations of volatility it doesn’t matter much which approach you use. For options expiring a month from now the differences in implied volatility are only a few percent between the 365 vs 252-day models. However, for shorter expirations the differences can be dramatic.

The chart below compares per minute values between the two annualizing approaches and shows the percentage difference. The calendar based approach is the black line and the green line is the market time. Notice how the difference peaks at Monday open and drops to near agreement at Friday close.

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” effect is sometimes visible in the CBOE’s VIX index and is pretty dramatic with their shorter term VXST SM index—not surprising since this index is based on SP 500 (SPX) option prices with at most 9 days until expiration.

There are good reasons to use a calendar day approach to annualization. It isn’t sensitive to holidays, unexpected market stoppages, or differences in trading calendars between countries. I expect that’s why it became a de facto standard in the implied volatility world. But the rise of shorter term volatility products like weekly options has shifted the volatility landscape enough that I think we need to at least know what is technically correct.

An analytic approach to a solution

Normally we take a shorter term (e.g., daily) volatility and multiply it by the appropriate annualizing factor to get the annualized volatility. Since the annualizing factor is the thing in question I decided to take the historical annual volatility for the last 64 years of the SP 500 and divide it by the daily volatility to solve for the actual historical annualizing factor.

First I validated this approach with a Monte Carlo simulation 1 that computed the theoretical annualizing factor for a simulated 64 year market period—and then repeated that exercise 10000 times to get the statistics of the calculation. I then applied the same calculation to the SP 500’s returns 2 over the last 64 years. The result:

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